I was entirely expecting this to happen so they could wage another forever war. I’m thankful they haven’t done it yet, but given they have a habit of lying and starting invasions, I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t happened.
I hope I’m not getting to conspiracy-brained here.
Open war with Iran would be very bad for the US. It’s not a country that can just be invaded the same way the US has dealt with its foes for the last 70 years. A causus belli is moot if there’s going to be US fleets at the bottom of the Indian Ocean and a collapse in global oil production. No amount of “they attacked us” is going to justify that conflict to the Wall Street, the international community, or the US public.
For the US, invading Iran is a question of “is there a US government (President) willing to be remembered as the one that oversaw the collapse of the empire?”