An expert in public policy asks if it will ever be possible for political parties in Europe to be honest about the limits of growth – and still get elected.
The EU has 10x the economy of Russia and 3x the population. The EU is at 31.8% low carbon energy today. Degrowth would still include building green alternatives, so GDP might half or so. That would still leave EU GDP at 5x Russias. Being self sufficient also means events abroad would impact the EU less. Not to mention that most potential enemies make most of their money by selling oil and gas. That very much includes Russia.
Just to say it, but Russia is not winning against Ukraine right now and European aid is not exactly massive compared to what would be used in a full scale war.
Interesting numbers. My own worry, related to the military one, is about the tech implications in general. It’s easy (in theory!) to achieve autarky and then go for economic contraction while maintaining living standards (via redistribution). But you’re inevitably going to get left behind by technology, which has always been a global game. AI is now supercharging this race, of course.
As this article hints, how do you get voters to accept that their currency is now too weak to pay for the latest gadgets? I agree it’s going to have to happen one way or another, but still.
The EU has 10x the economy of Russia and 3x the population. The EU is at 31.8% low carbon energy today. Degrowth would still include building green alternatives, so GDP might half or so. That would still leave EU GDP at 5x Russias. Being self sufficient also means events abroad would impact the EU less. Not to mention that most potential enemies make most of their money by selling oil and gas. That very much includes Russia.
Just to say it, but Russia is not winning against Ukraine right now and European aid is not exactly massive compared to what would be used in a full scale war.
Interesting numbers. My own worry, related to the military one, is about the tech implications in general. It’s easy (in theory!) to achieve autarky and then go for economic contraction while maintaining living standards (via redistribution). But you’re inevitably going to get left behind by technology, which has always been a global game. AI is now supercharging this race, of course.
As this article hints, how do you get voters to accept that their currency is now too weak to pay for the latest gadgets? I agree it’s going to have to happen one way or another, but still.