TL;DR: Tesla self-driving tech is becoming less safe per mile, according to Tesla’s own data.
Q1 2025 was 2.5% worse than Q1 2024.
Q2 2025 was 2.8% worse than Q2 2024.
Not a great look.
Move fast and break things - literal edition
The New Self-Driving Package presented by Fred Durst
Apt since Durst is such a shitbag
Teslas are already the least safe cars sold in america!
If you ask Tesla drivers, they often purchased the car because someone told them Teslas are safe, despite them being the statistically most lethal car you could drive in America.
We live in a dystopian information environment.
I remember back when elon bragged how save they are and how they smashed the safety tests (american, not real ones) and i though wow interesting and looked at the tests. And literally every test they smashed was because the car is super bottom heavy because that’s where the battery is. You could weld some railroads under every car and they would do just as well. I even remember thinking: oh he’s gonna get roasted once people realise that. Still waiting
“It broke the test equipment” is not NEARLY the clapback Elon thinks it is. That’s actually really bad, and probably demonstrates the lethality of the vehicle (it’s just too heavy)
Also I love your username, show me the lie
This is taking “testing in production” to a whole new level. How did this get past the regulations?
On second thoughts, does any country have concrete regulations for self driving vehicles? I am curious what they would be, and how they would quantify the thresholds since no self driving solution would be 100% accident-free.
How did this get past the regulations?
It’s almost like DOGE specifically dismantled the parts of the government that were investigating and attempting to regulate Musk’s companies.
Wow, that’s crazy – I thought they impartially reviewed the federal government and determined that all the waste was coming from the 10-person autonomous safety office at the NHTSA, and whoever does the science to make sure rockets don’t poison us all at the FAA.
Well, we know how he got passed regulations
Teslas “FSD” is not legal in the EU AFAIK.
The Cybertruck isn’t road legal in the UK. And if it was it’d need a special license due to it’s weight.
Same in the EU, the regular, B category for drivers license only qualifies you for driving vehicles up to 3500kgs and I believe the Cybersuck is over that
Look at you with your sane regulations. They practically give driver’s licenses away like candy here.
End-to-end ML can be much better than hybrid (or fully rules-based) systems. But there’s no guarantee and you have to actually measure the difference to be sure.
For safety-critical systems, I would also not want to commit fully to an e2e system because the worse explainability means it’s much harder to be confident that there is no strange failure mode that you haven’t spotted but may be, or may become, unacceptable common. In that case, you would want to be able to revert to a rules-based fallaback that may once have looked worse-performing but which has turned out to be better. That means that you can’t just delete and stop maintaining that rules-based code if you have any type of long-term thinking. Hmm.
I’ve thought about it in the past… what if there was a bug in an update and under some specific conditions the car will just vere to the side and crash. There’s a possibility that every self-driving Tesla travelling west into a sunset suddenly slams on the brakes causing a pile up. Who knows what kind of edge cases could exist?
Even worse, what if someone hacks the wireless update and does something like this intentionally?yeah i wanna see what the fuck metrics made them think this was a good idea. what is their mean average precision. did they recall@1 for humans on the road
Could this be attributed to the driver mix changing?
It’s quite possible tesla drivers are worse in 2025 than 2024
The politically motivated sell off should have something to do with it 😂
Yeah exactly!
Ha funny. I highly suspected this could happen when I heard they have quotas for how many changes the people training the AI make to the AI behavior. That’s a recipe for flooding the system with bad data.
No AI can be better than the info it is given, and if X is an indicator on that, it’s just about a certainty that Tesla AI will rot in misinformation.This is actually in line with ai I’ve used… For some reason it just turns to shit after a while, I’m not sure why
I’ve also noticed that.
Intrinsic to the tech, I think. It’s not that it gets worse, it just gets different (intentionally, as a feature).
The teams that ensure “different” trends in the direction of “better,” those teams are universally very new at their jobs and at the technology.
So, serious organizations are figuring out how to test and deploy consistently better AIs. I don’t think Elon Musk runs a single serious organization, other than arguably SpaceX.
It will be fine they said, it will get better they said.
Somehow it gets even worse.
Replacing code with networks has the potential to be much faster with similar quality. The idea is good.
At least when it’s Teslas code getting replaced
No, in general. You want to do as little pre and post processing as possible for neural networks.
People in this thread don’t understand what machine learning is, and they think Tesla’s FSD is chat gpt.
I’m an early Tesla enthusiast and I’ve purchased FSD when it was cheap, I still don’t have what I purchased, they no longer claim the things they used to claim it will do on the website, Elon is a Nazi con man who took a great product and hired brilliant engineers to build amazing tech only to taint it by manipulating an election to install a dictator and Seig Heiled in celebration.
But Elon is just the rich asshole that runs the company, the brilliant engineers made amazing software that is still amazing despite not fulfilling Elon’s fraudulent sales pitches.
This is not an endorsement of Tesla, I hope it crashes and burns as long as he benefits from it, I wish we can nationalize it and all its very valuable assets. But my “supervised” FSD handles all my driving and I haven’t had a single disengagement in many months. It takes me from my driveway to any address with ease, and my passengers don’t even realize I’m not driving.
Sticking your head in the sand and pretending it’s not a real product because the CEO turned out to be a Nazi isn’t intellectually honest or useful. Normalize the idea of nationalizing Tesla, it was heavily funded by our tax dollars after all.
FSD is improving at an incredible pace, and it would be very beneficial to society to nationalize and open source it, otherwise Elon the Nazi capitalist gets to benefit from it alone. China has incredible capacity to collect the training data in a short time that Tesla spent a decade collecting, and I have no doubt they’ll have an FSD comparable product soon, I do doubt they’ll open source it.
inb4 someone calls me a Republican or a Russian because I said FSD is real. Find someone who has it and ask them for a demo, and judge for yourself.
