The phrasing of the question is a bit weird. I don’t think there is likely to be an equivalent of Pearl Harbour for China. Personally I think direct military conflict between China and either the US or its regional allies is still unlikely.
The major hypothetical one, however, without assigning probability, would be Taiwan, as others have mentioned in this thread. Another would be Japan pursuing sovereign nuclear weapons (rather than just hosting*) or changing its constitution to instantiate an effectively offensive military force (rather than maintaining a Self Defence Force). China would seek to militarily reunify Taiwan in either instance.
*The US is deliberately vague about whether nuclear capable and nuclear armed vessels or aircraft pass through or are stationed at bases across the Pacific. Even if Japan ostensibly disallows the hosting of such weapons, I am not naive enough to think that the US doesn’t deliberately do so, or would do so, regardless
The phrasing of the question is a bit weird. I don’t think there is likely to be an equivalent of Pearl Harbour for China. Personally I think direct military conflict between China and either the US or its regional allies is still unlikely.
The major hypothetical one, however, without assigning probability, would be Taiwan, as others have mentioned in this thread. Another would be Japan pursuing sovereign nuclear weapons (rather than just hosting*) or changing its constitution to instantiate an effectively offensive military force (rather than maintaining a Self Defence Force). China would seek to militarily reunify Taiwan in either instance.
*The US is deliberately vague about whether nuclear capable and nuclear armed vessels or aircraft pass through or are stationed at bases across the Pacific. Even if Japan ostensibly disallows the hosting of such weapons, I am not naive enough to think that the US doesn’t deliberately do so, or would do so, regardless