• 11 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 16th, 2023

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  • The Russian people only have no say as long as they fear Putin more than they fear the war and/or distrust each other. If those meters tick over the midway point, they either refuse to follow military/conscription orders or they revolt.

    If the other oligarchs begin to fear the people or the war more than Putin, they coup him, officially or otherwise (just ctrl+f for SSR, Russia, and Soviet if you want to read about some convenient “accidents”).

    I think with the strikes throughout Russia, the people are beginning to fear the war more and with the proposed bank account confiscations, the oligarchs are beginning to fear the war more. I don’t know what will pop first (or if either will hit the tipping point before Ukraine does), but I don’t think Putin is in anywhere near as secure a position as he was five or even two years ago.


  • I think the Russian people will more willingly give up the potential of gained territory than the Ukrainian people will give up part of their land, tbh. Putin was incredibly popular for many years (decades, even), but the cost of living in Russia is insane, and with gas shortages and bombings all over the countryside have dulled his shine.

    Maybe I’m wrong, but I hope not. Invaders shouldn’t get to keep territory just because anymore. I’d be fine with giving each currently contested oblast in Ukraine an independence vote afterwards, but that should be independent of the peace process and if they were to join Russia, Ukrainian oblasts would be equally subject to reparations payments as the rest of Russia.

    If Ukraine had invaded Russia and annexed its territory, I’d want Ukraine to cede its acquired territory and pay reparations, too, but they didn’t. The only thing they did to provoke this was to edge closer to Europe, which is certainly their right as a sovereign state.






  • Zelenskyy will not give up Crimea either, because his country’s constitution does not give him the power to. They’d both give up their lives if they gave up Crimea, but Putin is a) only driven by personal vanity and a desire to return the nation to 35 year old glory, while Zelenskyy is driven by a sense of justice and national pride rooted in something recently stolen from the country; and b) in a much worse position to survive the bad PR of continuing the war: it might not be Putin who ends the war, but Russia will not continue fighting for long.


  • It’s also the worst possible course of study to ever require for anyone outside organic chem majors.

    I loved biology and statistics, and was pretty neutral towards calculus, but for some reason, chemistry is incomprehensible to me (Physics too, but that’s because neither the teacher nor I knew how to use my Casio graphing calculator, so I tried to do all the math on paper and ended up wasting the whole class doing arithmetic instead of listening-I’ve thought about taking a basic physics course at a community college, but I don’t think even that would help with chemistry).

    My sister’s a science teacher and was taking masters level organic chemistry classes while I was taking high school chemistry. At one point she showed me some of her coursework and I literally decided in that moment that I didn’t want to study biology badly enough to go through organic chemistry.

    That sounds like she’s a really bad teacher, lol, but my strengths are definitely in different areas, so it’s also a fair insight.





  • Yeah, I’m not under any illusion that it’ll be (literally) sunshine and daisies. The WHO estimates that 250k people will die annually because of climate change between 2030-2050 though, and (I sincerely hope) a shift in global power dynamics from something like this is unlikely to kill that many.

    China will also be more focused on preserving stability in general as a global power than Russia or the United States, though this would probably be very bad news for Taiwan, if successful.

    I agree that the effects for Europe are less clear. The EU is likely to benefit much more than Russia or the US, but it might lose power in comparison to an energy rich India or Indonesia. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, other places deserve a fair seat at the table, especially given the relative populations.