This is definitely worth a read and I very much hope the author’s predictions come true, but I think it misses the mark in two big areas.
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This article presumes these platforms will remain the same. In reality these companies will pull out all the stops to incentivize users to stay, and if that doesn’t work they will just buy up and acquire the competition, wherever the users are. Look at what’s happening with tiktok.
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Some users - believe it or not - want a way to keep up with IRL friends and acquaintances. Instagram and Facebook provided a great way to do this (however less “great” nowadays). Still, I don’t want to email or text every single person I know just to share a photo or a recent event. And honestly I also don’t want every acquaintance I have sharing every detail of their lives over text or email or phone. Even with an alternative, we’d have to find and rebuild our personal networks all over again.
I think it’ll make a comeback eventually. LLMs will get progressively less useful as a replacement as its’ training data stales. Without refreshed data it’s going to be just as irrelevant as the years go on. Where will it get data about new programming languages or solutions to problems in new software? LLM knowledge will be stuck in 2025 unless new training material is given to it.