It matches a pattern.

Acting upon advance warnings about a possible attempt or provocation by Russia, Finland has asked Sweden if they could station some ships and aircraft on Finnish territory just in case.

What we’re doing here in Estonia currently (besides already hosting extra troops from allied countries) officially, seems to be “our threat assessement has not changed”. Unofficially, the defense forces accepted almost 3 x times less conscripts (only the brightest crayons, and mostly into UAV / anti-air / artillery / missile roles) and all the paid personnel are taking refresher courses on modern methods of war. Meanwhile construction works in the border regions are underway, with anti-armor ditches being dug and dragon’s teeth stored near blockable places. Drone purchases are of course behind schedule.

Basically everyone in Eastern Europe considers it a possibility that Putin might make another miscalculation.

Putin should know that a miscalculation with NATO will absolutely guarantee that Ukraine gets the upper hand.

At the moment, there is no realistic way to do it.

Large gatherings of people may become a target.

Also, I should note that while they currently depend on Western-branded components made in Taiwan (to get lots of processing power), the same can be done (if you find a good enough coder) with far less operations per second… in which case they have supply from the PRC. Fortunately this hasn’t happened yet.

“Monochrome” seems somewhat of a hybrid between a cruise missile and a killer robot. It’s a cruise missile which evaluates things it sees, and decides which target is worth attacking. What instructions it gets before launch, hasn’t been disclosed so far, but everything suggests those are fairly abstract instructions.

• fix the pieces in their intended position (maybe with a droplet of epoxy)
• bring out a dedicated soldering tip (you won’t be soldering with it any more) and 3D printer filament of the same plastic
• weld carefully with a low-temperature iron, in a well ventilated place (maybe outdoors)

I hope they get those interceptors.

But more than that, I hope they get the tools to shut down the production of Iskander-M launchers or 9M723 missiles.

Missile defense is necessary (to preserve very important objects), but financially unsound. Destroying the opponent’s missile supply is financially sound.

I hope Russia doesn’t make and store them underground like Iran. Which anyone with sense would do, unfortunately.

If it does and production cannot be stopped, the next best thing is to hit back with similar tools.

I hope you’re right.

They have ‘elections’ coming in September, so if this kind of events make people discuss the war, and maybe doubt the official story of how utterly necessary it is, or how utterly well it’s going for them… maybe. But I would not bet on that outcome.

My take:

• yes, Wildberries did sell and store drone components, single mode bare fiber and such stuff, but not on a world-changing scale, they most likely supplied smallish drone makers, not big ones

• legally, this makes them a target, but actual damage from a burning Wildberries warehouse to Russian warfighting capability is small

• meanwhile the presence of civilian employees and a great amount of totally unrelated goods discourages attacking them, and strongly advises to plan any attacks in a way to minimize loss of life

• anyway, Ukraine has finally decided to attack them, property damage is likely quite big, not sure about loss of life

• this will cause Russian air defense a great deal of trouble, since they have to reshuffle their defenses (they are already over-extended)

• but, this does not remove Russia’s sources of income, just genrally f**ks with their economy and causes dissatisfafaction and uncertainty

So overall, I’m not cheering, but I’m not condemning it either.

It’s roughly equivalent to Russia bombing UkrPochta (they’ve done it) with the justification that its warehouses contain Chinese drone parts arriving into Ukraine. Reading directly, not a super bright move - militarily, a target of very low relevance. It could give an advantage through secondary effects.

If you are looking for passive alternatives, then I’ve got bad news: you have to design them before you build a house.

In Iran, before electrical power became available, they used wind towers to draw up ground-cooled air through the qanat (underground aqueduct) system. It works without external power, but you have to know you need it before you build houses.

Also, simply a house with very thick stone walls (expensive to build), a cellar (possibly with a cistern) and no south-facing windows will stay cool during summer peaks.

Personal impression:

Everyone knew there was a problem with Oleksandr Syrskyi for a while. How had a tendency to micromanage troops, often causing needless losses by commanding an attack by some unit which was exhausted enough so it could only defend. Maybe a Russian position was taken for a while, but the unit was super exhausted and Russians took it back. This seems to have earned him the nickname “Butcher”.

It also seems that Syrskyi liked to build a hierarchy of command based on personal loyalty, and didn’t like people bringing him bad news or criticism.

Due to his high rank, however, he was immune to criticism from low-ranking people. It took a big dispute with the former defense minister (Myhkailo Fedorov) to bring attention to the problem. This exposed the issue because Fedorov liked to govern by the numbers, and is capable of providing detailed explanations for his actions. He had a reputation of not doing things for personal or whimsical reasons.

A point came when the MoD of Ukraine and the chief of the army could not meet at the same table. When the government resigned, the defense minister was free to explain what he thought about things. So finally there is enough momentum to dislodge Syrskyi, and I think it does them good.

I hope there was space. :)

I once had to replace an alternator on a Peugeot 308, ended up cursing and got a cold (was working in a snow storm as the car was needed next day) because it was impossible to fit my hands where I had to work, so everything was super slow.

Actually, not really.

The foremost need of Ukraine, currently, is financial backing, a steady stream of equipment and safe places to manufacture equipment. They haven’t asked for foreign soldiers to do their fighting. In fact, they are increasingly switching over to remote-operated warfare to reduce needs for manpower.

What Ukraine urgently needs at the moment is either some kind of defense against Russian ballistic missiles (since Trump wasted US missile defense on fighting with Iran and can’t sell to Ukraine even if he wanted, not to speak of donating)… or a way to knock out production of at least “Iskander” (9K720, also known as SS-26 Stone).

I my humble opinion, knocking out production would be smarter. This translates into other countries giving money, elements of tech and research so that Ukraine can piece together a very effective long-range strike program and hammer Russian factories until Iskander becomes a rarity item.

Which is probably happening as we speak, but sadly at the same time, Russia in hitting Ukraininan facilities with ballistic missiles almost unobstructed because missile defense is very, very exhausted. Fortunately many of those facilities are either deep underground or in secret locations but power stations and fuel storage sites aren’t exactly a secret.

Also, both sides are currently deploying AI-enabled drones, with Ukraine a bit ahead in reach (and a bit smarter with keeping a human in the loop) and Russia a bit ahead on autonomy (their latest don’t have a human in the loop, but don’t fly as far).

I would characterize: in this stage of the conflict, Russia has lost initiative and Ukraine has gained it, but both sides are destroying each other’s infrastructure at an uneasy pace. It would be good if peace could be achieved before winter, because a winter with broken infrastructure is a disaster waiting to happen.

This latest government overhaul (Yulia Svyrdenko resigning as PM, as a result Mykhailo Fedorov also becoming jobless) has left me wondering.

I haven’t yet seen a clear reason for it. I have the feeling, purely based on results - if these are results attributable to his activity as a minister of defense - that he should be offered the same job again.

About ten years ago, when I built my house, I decided that solar power would suffice. It did not - got a grid connection last year - but solar power is giving me the biggest part, so my grid connection is a laughable 3 x 6 amps. :)

Around 2009 or so, a fellow anarchist linked an ecological footprint calculator in a forum. I ran it, and found out that 60% of my footprint came from driving a lot (I don’t fly, except for flying drones), and most of that from buying fuel. So I built an electric moped-car. But I built it wrong and had to dismantle it, sell the metal for scrap and build another. It lasted a few years, then I was forced to switch to a temporary gas-powered microvan. When the microvan broke down, I spotted an auction: someone was selling an electric microcar which the social ministry had crashed. So I got it, managed to fix it, and finally I could produce my own fuel for driving. The road here has obviously been steep and littered with failed projects, but now I can even support other folks who drive that kind of stupidly made microcars, while I bide my time to build a proper electric moped-car.

I am working on the part of communications - not being a passive consumer but giving some and getting some in return. Found out that some folks have started experimenting with MeshCore and MeshTastic in my town, so I intend to join those nets and see if they’re usable for chatting with a friend.

I am also working on other kinds of communications (agile ultra wideband frequency hopping with SDR) but sadly, this is less solarpunk and more like miltech.

Dehydration can be done with vacuum, perhaps?

I’m not sure what to think about it - a risk certainly exists, but I can’t put a probability on it currently.

I live in one of the countries which has been warned about a provocation - Estonia. Over here, we’ve been preparing for this at some kind of a pace (IMHO too slow) for quite some years. An admission must be made: both Ukraine and Russia are way ahead in mass production and use of drones. They both punch above their weight with drones (and both have considerable weight too) and have considerably more antidrone defense set up than neighbouring countries.

Russia manufactures an awful lots of drones per day. But as long as Ukraine fights it with an equally awful lot, Russia simply lacks resources for a big provocation, since Ukraine is tying down all their resources.

Russia has fuel shortages, manpower shortages, armor and artillery shortages, no surplus of drones either (they fly to Ukraine within days of leaving a factory). There could be a stockpile of 100 or 200 Iskander short range ballistic missiles, less of other types. On the background, of course, the Soviet-built strategic missile forces exist untouched. But they’re not capable of being used with conventional warheads, since their precision is too low.

Meanwhile, Putin’s popularity is finally dropping. Parliamentary elections are approaching. It’s fairly obviouls that special services must be considering “creative” ways of taking back initiative. But I can’t clearly see what they would hope to achieve with this kind of activity.

Hypothetic perspective from Russia: “let’s f*ck around and see if NATO has resolve”

• Option A: NATO does not have resolve, but Ukraine used the day to blow up another series of important industries
• Option B: oopsie, NATO does have resolve and just joined Ukraine in blowing up stuff

I don’t see a winning option.

There have been suggestions and warnings that in autumn, after faking parliamentary elections, there might be a mobilization in Russia.

(Hopefully, a revolution soon after that, since a mobilization means giving proper weapons to random blokes and sending them to a war which they didn’t intend to join.)

Fortunately young people are the least enthusiastic. He can keep looking and only find a limited amount of fools.

The neat thing about them:

First, the pair of habitats can be rolled by operating the cylinders as momentum wheels. If one habitat’s rotation is slightly off, the two cylinders will rotate about each other. Once the plane formed by the two axes of rotation is perpendicular in the roll axis to the orbit, then the pair of cylinders can be yawed to aim at the Sun by exerting a force between the two sunward bearings. Pushing the cylinders away from each other will cause both cylinders to gyroscopically precess, and the system will yaw in one direction, while pushing them towards each other will cause yaw in the other direction. The counter-rotating habitats have no net gyroscopic effect, and so this slight precession can continue throughout the habitat’s orbit, keeping it aimed at the Sun. This is a novel application of control moment gyroscopes.

From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O'Neill_cylinder

I guess it fizzled out or wasn’t pointing at Earth. Geomagnetic storms range from G1 to G5, and currently a G1 storm is predicted.

https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/3dforecast.html

Solar wind speed remains elevated at around 650 km/s due to continuing coronal hole (CH) effects. We are due to transition into another high-speed stream (HSS) from a trans-equatorial CH during the first forecast interval, enhancing geomagnetic activity further potentially up to STORM G1 level.

Aurora maps show pretty weak auroras around the north pole. Most indicators are green or yellow.

https://aurorainfo.eu/aurora-alerts/

Unfortunately, yes.

The commander of the unmanned forces apologized for inconvenience in an online post, but still, one is not supposed to attack the power grid without a good military reason (e.g. causing temporary distraction in an easy to repair way, disconnecting a particular military object or production facility).

I don’t know the details. Typically, if one flies into a transformer, that is temporary disablement. For comparison, if one flies into a turbine hall, that shows that one intends to take the grid down and keep it down.

However, I would not worry much, since Crimea is home to a lot of Ukrainians. They won’t break the infrastructure badly because their own citizens need it.

Zelensky meanwhile says that he has signed the orders to conduct a 40 day “influence campaign” to influence Russia to negotiate for peace. Speculating a bit, causing severe shortages, an outflow of people and the failure of this tourism season in Crimea (the least defensible part of occupied lands, since it has such a feeble connection to Russia) could be part of this.