My concern is that The West won’t negotiate in good faith, and then we’re at Minsk all over again. What concrete promises can Ukraine deliver that won’t be undone under NATO first chance westerners get?
And there lies my concern. What guarantees can the west offer? There is no diplomatic trust on either side. Once the AFU collapses, does Russia just take what they’ve claimed? Without some serious diplomacy, i fear this conflict simply ‘goes cold’ like the Korean war.
The west can’t offer any guarantees, and that’s why this war is going to have a military solution. I expect Russia will absorb most of Ukraine aside from western parts of it that are genuinely anti Russian. What’s left is going to be demilitarized. NATO is very clearly not going to directly fight Russia, if they were going to do it that would’ve happened by now. So, Russia is in a position to dictate their terms.
They won the war and there’s nothing the west can do about it, so Russia doesn’t need to agree to any compromise. It’s not going to be a frozen war, the AFU is going to collapse, and once that happens Russia will likely hold referendums to have whatever oblasts want to join Russia do so. Then they’re going to leave a demilitarized rump western Ukraine as Europe’s problem. It’s going to need billions in funding just to keep it functioning, and if Europeans fail to deliver then they’re going to have a huge immigration crisis on their hands.
yeah, but 3 days after the western ukrainian rump state is demilitarized, the EU/US will restart the smuggling of weapons into ukraine and will aid ukronazis in doing terrorism in eastern ukraine, and then what? how does russia plan to stop the constant, unending gladio shit that’s coming, without the whole thing devolving back to where this started, but with the borders shifted.
I don’t think it’s going to be that easy for EU/US to do in practice. You gotta keep in mind that there is a betrayal narrative already taking hold in Ukraine. A lot of these fascists also died fighting over the past three years. The remaining ones are going to hold as much a grudge against the west. Then there’s the fact that they’ve been funnelling weapons to cells in Europe this whole time. The way things are going in Europe, they might decide they have a better chance there. Russia also has a lot of experience dealing with this sort of stuff as can be seen recently in Chechnya. Majority of the population in Ukraine is tired of the war now, and even Ukrainian polls show they want the war to be over. There’s going to be very little appetite to be a NATO proxy going forward.
My concern is that The West won’t negotiate in good faith, and then we’re at Minsk all over again. What concrete promises can Ukraine deliver that won’t be undone under NATO first chance westerners get?
I really can’t see Russia falling for Minsk 3 at this point.
Nevertheless, she persisted
And there lies my concern. What guarantees can the west offer? There is no diplomatic trust on either side. Once the AFU collapses, does Russia just take what they’ve claimed? Without some serious diplomacy, i fear this conflict simply ‘goes cold’ like the Korean war.
The west can’t offer any guarantees, and that’s why this war is going to have a military solution. I expect Russia will absorb most of Ukraine aside from western parts of it that are genuinely anti Russian. What’s left is going to be demilitarized. NATO is very clearly not going to directly fight Russia, if they were going to do it that would’ve happened by now. So, Russia is in a position to dictate their terms.
yeah, but what can they do if the west presents a minsk 3? say no and keep a frozen war with a fully militarized border?
They won the war and there’s nothing the west can do about it, so Russia doesn’t need to agree to any compromise. It’s not going to be a frozen war, the AFU is going to collapse, and once that happens Russia will likely hold referendums to have whatever oblasts want to join Russia do so. Then they’re going to leave a demilitarized rump western Ukraine as Europe’s problem. It’s going to need billions in funding just to keep it functioning, and if Europeans fail to deliver then they’re going to have a huge immigration crisis on their hands.
yeah, but 3 days after the western ukrainian rump state is demilitarized, the EU/US will restart the smuggling of weapons into ukraine and will aid ukronazis in doing terrorism in eastern ukraine, and then what? how does russia plan to stop the constant, unending gladio shit that’s coming, without the whole thing devolving back to where this started, but with the borders shifted.
I don’t think it’s going to be that easy for EU/US to do in practice. You gotta keep in mind that there is a betrayal narrative already taking hold in Ukraine. A lot of these fascists also died fighting over the past three years. The remaining ones are going to hold as much a grudge against the west. Then there’s the fact that they’ve been funnelling weapons to cells in Europe this whole time. The way things are going in Europe, they might decide they have a better chance there. Russia also has a lot of experience dealing with this sort of stuff as can be seen recently in Chechnya. Majority of the population in Ukraine is tired of the war now, and even Ukrainian polls show they want the war to be over. There’s going to be very little appetite to be a NATO proxy going forward.