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Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.

In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.

“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.

[…]

Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.

With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.

“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.

[…]

      • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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        7 days ago

        Starting war directly with NATO would start WW3. It would trigger a cascade of responses that lead to nuclear armageddon.

        I doubt Russia wants that.

        • torrentialgrain@lemm.ee
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          7 days ago

          Okay sure, nuclear war. With what weapons? France’s nuclear arsenal is tiny and the US will not defend Europe.

          • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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            7 days ago

            They have almost three hundred warheads! Are you under the impression that you need a large arsenal to act as a deterrent?

            Russians aren’t orcs. They aren’t going to risk all of their cities being nuked.

        • Digitalprimate@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          No they don’t want this, and the West keeps falling for their nuke saber rattling bullshit every time, going back decades. Russia is not going to nuke anyone.