Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.
In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.
“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.
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Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.
With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.
“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.
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Russia can not even defeat Ukraine, they can’t do shit. But we need to rearm, now that there is no big ally anymore. But several potential enemies. All of them big and powerful.
European security experts and generals do not agree with your view. Russia will defeat Ukraine if the current status quo cements itself longterm (US retreat, EU not stepping up SIGINIFICANTLY). And Ukraine is the second strongest army in Europe, after Russia.
If Russia attacks the baltics say, next year, we’re fucked. This is an emperor wears no clothes moment. America won’t help (if anything, they will help Russia) and the EU lacks military resources, strategic enablers, a combined command and frankly, the soldiers.
Europe is slowly realizing this and moving to address these issues but it will take 5 to 10 years according to the decision makers. I can assure you that we don’t have as much time.
Can you link those security experts etc.?
You mean stronger as in number of military personnel, right? That and % GDP spend seem to be the only metric where Ukraine is #2. But it should be rather obvious that 2 countries at war will have more personnel and money spend. Ukraine was around 300’000 pre 2022. They are at 2.2 million now. Why should such a change not be possible everywhere? Are you assuming that the current peace time armies will stay locked in place instead of growing 10-fold? Than there would be no massive shift to a war time economy?
Lately I’ve been reading and listening to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Former commander in the British Forces), Ulrike Franke (EU Council of Foreign Relations), Frank Sauer (Bundeswehr University Munich) and Markus Reisner (General in the Austrian Forces). While I don’t copy my view 1:1 from what they’re saying, I think you’ll find that they echo my worries and nobody with a deep understanding of the current situation of NATO and Europe thinks that we will just walk over Russia in an armed conflict.
Regarding your second paragraph, I think we are actually largely in agreement here. Europe definitely has the potential to be a lot stronger than Russia (and that alone would be enough deterrence to prevent an actual war). The problem is that we aren’t right now and we need to change that, and fast.
This, Russians can plan attacking whole world, but what with if they can’t properly invade even Ukraine? As per enemies only realistic ones are Russians, I can’t imagine others traveling that far and attacking Europe 🤷♂️ There is also Hungary 🤦♂️
We do not only need to be able to defend ourselves, but also other nations. Only if everyone works together, to deter aggressions, can we have peace. Otherwise nations will attack others with smaller or even similar military power.
While this is true in general, it’s a slippery slope. If you look at current state, even now we are enabling genocide in Palestine under disguise of protecting others. With greater power the temptation will only rise. OTOH we need to exercise our interests, hopefully humane and legitimate.
They can only do that because the USA backs them. Imagine a world where everyone would tell them to fuck off and actually do something if they do not. So less blablabla and more doing like with the first Gulf war. August 1990 Sadam fucked around and only 5 months later they found out. Simple.
US and Europe lead by Germany. As per Sadam, you’re referring to that war where Iraqi soldiers were throwing Kuwaiti newborns out of incubators? What about the recent one where fictional WMDs were the trigger to obliterate them including civilians?
Are you suggesting the Sadam did not invade Kuwait?
And don’t forget Hamas beheading babies! Some racist trope about barbaric middle easterners killing babies always gets our juices flowing. Doesn’t matter that none of this ever happened, it’s war time baby and we’re the good guys!