Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.
In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.
“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.
[…]
Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.
With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.
“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.
[…]
The headline should have been “Weapons manufacturer thinks everyone should buy more weapons”.
Mr. Obermann may have a business interest here, but his remarks regarding Russia’s economy are absolutely valid. Putin has turned Russia into a ‘war economy’ with the whole country depending on war. Even Russian economists -including from the Central Bank- warn that the country will be facing difficult times if peace breaks out (which may also mean it would be difficult for Putin to stay in power as soon as the war ends and there is no enemy anymore).
So Obermann’s comment that “the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow”, is very real. Putin put his country on a war path for the long term. For example, Russia’s defense minister is an economist claiming that war would be a requirement for economic growth (this is, of course, complete rubbish, but this comes from Russia’s government).
I wrote a comment regarding Russia’s economy in a different thread and don’t want to repeat it, so here is the link if you are interested: https://slrpnk.net/post/19670037/14488418
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Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren’t orcs.
They should prove it by not starting endless fucking wars then. Maybe honor at least one(1) fucking peace agreement you’ve made.
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Next time just don’t reply at all if you have nothing of value to add.
Do you find it of value to spout plain bigotry? Given the history of US military action should I say it is one of the core traits of Americans to be blood-thirsty ghouls?
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If the sanctions end they’ll be able to wind down and focus on peaceful development.
Where do you get this? Even the Russian experts -those from the Central Bank, from the universities, and other entities under the direct control of the Kremlin- openly refuse such claims. The numbers -from Rosstat, Russia’s national statistics office, and other Kremlin-affiliated institutions- are painting a completely different picture. Even the Russian state-media openly say that Russia’s economy is in for a long-term winter, e.g., the country will be facing severe labour shortage, staggering inflation, troubles to payout state pensions.
Just because he can profit from that doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
Russia can not even defeat Ukraine, they can’t do shit. But we need to rearm, now that there is no big ally anymore. But several potential enemies. All of them big and powerful.
European security experts and generals do not agree with your view. Russia will defeat Ukraine if the current status quo cements itself longterm (US retreat, EU not stepping up SIGINIFICANTLY). And Ukraine is the second strongest army in Europe, after Russia.
If Russia attacks the baltics say, next year, we’re fucked. This is an emperor wears no clothes moment. America won’t help (if anything, they will help Russia) and the EU lacks military resources, strategic enablers, a combined command and frankly, the soldiers.
Europe is slowly realizing this and moving to address these issues but it will take 5 to 10 years according to the decision makers. I can assure you that we don’t have as much time.
Can you link those security experts etc.?
You mean stronger as in number of military personnel, right? That and % GDP spend seem to be the only metric where Ukraine is #2. But it should be rather obvious that 2 countries at war will have more personnel and money spend. Ukraine was around 300’000 pre 2022. They are at 2.2 million now. Why should such a change not be possible everywhere? Are you assuming that the current peace time armies will stay locked in place instead of growing 10-fold? Than there would be no massive shift to a war time economy?
Lately I’ve been reading and listening to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Former commander in the British Forces), Ulrike Franke (EU Council of Foreign Relations), Frank Sauer (Bundeswehr University Munich) and Markus Reisner (General in the Austrian Forces). While I don’t copy my view 1:1 from what they’re saying, I think you’ll find that they echo my worries and nobody with a deep understanding of the current situation of NATO and Europe thinks that we will just walk over Russia in an armed conflict.
Regarding your second paragraph, I think we are actually largely in agreement here. Europe definitely has the potential to be a lot stronger than Russia (and that alone would be enough deterrence to prevent an actual war). The problem is that we aren’t right now and we need to change that, and fast.
This, Russians can plan attacking whole world, but what with if they can’t properly invade even Ukraine? As per enemies only realistic ones are Russians, I can’t imagine others traveling that far and attacking Europe 🤷♂️ There is also Hungary 🤦♂️
We do not only need to be able to defend ourselves, but also other nations. Only if everyone works together, to deter aggressions, can we have peace. Otherwise nations will attack others with smaller or even similar military power.
While this is true in general, it’s a slippery slope. If you look at current state, even now we are enabling genocide in Palestine under disguise of protecting others. With greater power the temptation will only rise. OTOH we need to exercise our interests, hopefully humane and legitimate.
They can only do that because the USA backs them. Imagine a world where everyone would tell them to fuck off and actually do something if they do not. So less blablabla and more doing like with the first Gulf war. August 1990 Sadam fucked around and only 5 months later they found out. Simple.
US and Europe lead by Germany. As per Sadam, you’re referring to that war where Iraqi soldiers were throwing Kuwaiti newborns out of incubators? What about the recent one where fictional WMDs were the trigger to obliterate them including civilians?
And don’t forget Hamas beheading babies! Some racist trope about barbaric middle easterners killing babies always gets our juices flowing. Doesn’t matter that none of this ever happened, it’s war time baby and we’re the good guys!
Are you suggesting the Sadam did not invade Kuwait?
Chairman of arms manufacturing company says Europe should buy arms.
🤔
Do you disagree?
Starting war directly with NATO would start WW3. It would trigger a cascade of responses that lead to nuclear armageddon.
I doubt Russia wants that.
Okay sure, nuclear war. With what weapons? France’s nuclear arsenal is tiny and the US will not defend Europe.
They have almost three hundred warheads! Are you under the impression that you need a large arsenal to act as a deterrent?
Russians aren’t orcs. They aren’t going to risk all of their cities being nuked.
No they don’t want this, and the West keeps falling for their nuke saber rattling bullshit every time, going back decades. Russia is not going to nuke anyone.
So russia will attack EU with… Ladas? There isn’t much left of the third best army in russia.
Can they, finally, so we can get this human meat grinder shit show stopped? The moment NATO can stretch it’s legs this should be over in days/weeks, right?
Do you seriously believe that?
Sure do, you don’t? Why isn’t Russia advancing further if they are so powerful they could withstand a nato assault? With the amount of bodies spent per km2, they would need to throw another million bodies at the front line just to secure the provinces they are already claiming as theirs.
Seeing their stocks dwindle on satellite imagery makes me think they are at the brink of complete meltdown even without a direct NATO response.
What do you think it would look like if article 5 was triggered?
I will answer your questions because I’m always very interested in discussing these things in a controversial manner but first, can I play your last question back to you just to understand where you’re coming from?
How would this go down in your mind?
Finland, Sweden, and Estonia will take over St. Petersburg while Russia is busy trying to take a Baltic region that has the support of the rest of Europe? Not to mention I think Poland won’t allow that shit to happen a THIRD time in about a century - they’ve been prepping for awhile now.
I mean, it would turn into a three pronged war where the first prong has already been struggling to even keep territory let alone gain it. Most of the pro soldiers are gone and it’ll be conscripts dealing with professional armies with modern tech.
That won’t happen. I’m not a nuclear alarmist but the Russian military will 100% use tactical nukes before they allow a foreign military to capture one of their major cities.
I think this is a correct assessment. Beating Russia back from their invasions is one thing, going after one of their major cities however is a red line where I think they will actually deploy nukes.
I agree but russian nukes have been historically poorly maintained and in a terrible condition. They had Ukranians maintain them who stopped for some reason in 2014. Surely some will work but in the same way they don’t have the navy they claimed they have, the army they claimed they have they sure as hell don’t have the nukes they claim they have.
And if Russia does so Germany and France might do the same.
Hence why they haven’t picked any fights against NATO either.
